Geographical diversification of international student recruitment has become an institutional preoccupation over the past decade, attracting the attention of international education professionals and policymakers. The importance of this issue is heightened in the UK by the 40% reduction in EU undergraduate applicants, as estimated by UCAS, who enrolled in 2021-22.
At bachelor’s level there is a relatively balanced diversity in the market at first degree level.
While there was an increase in the number of UK higher education institutions (HEIs) recruiting half of their students from one country, there was a notable reduction in the universities’ reliance on China at the bachelor’s level. In 2017-18, 56% of the HEIs had China as their top market; this dropped to 49% in 2020-21. This is largely attributable to the reduction in Chinese undergraduate entrants. Over the same period, India became the top market for 11% of the HEIs, up from 0%.
The causes for the declines in students from China are complex and nuanced – some are likely to be attributed to the pandemic and the shift to online learning, which might have eroded the premium for students of being physically based in the UK. Disrupted travel also meant that students with the best intentions of travelling were unable to do so and had to continue their course from their home country.
In the long run, we are still to see whether this disruption in the TNE recruitment pipeline is a blip or part of an emerging trend, perhaps related to improving higher education provision in the home country.
Unlike for undergraduate courses, most of the HEIs (82 per cent) are heavily reliant on one or two markets for the recruitment of their postgraduate taught (PGT) students.
Another significant shift is the replacement of reliance on China with that of India. China dropped from being the top market for 55% of the HEIs in 2017-18 to 35% in 2020-21. Similarly, the proportions of HEIs with most of their PGT students from India increased from 15% in 2017-18 to 46% in 2020-21.
An additional and often overlooked aspect of reliance on one country is the impact on the student experience. One of the key drivers for international student mobility, particularly at the postgraduate level, is the expectation of an internationalised learning experience with a classroom consisting of students from many different countries.
In addition to markets, the discussion of diversification should also consider the HEIs’ international student recruitment portfolio – exposure to any recruitment pipeline can be as risky as reliance on one market. The pandemic might have disproportionately impacted demand from students with limited financial means, like those articulating from offshore courses.
The source of tuition fee funding is particularly relevant for PhD students, as discussed in the UUKi report ‘Global demand for UK postgraduate research degrees’, which shows a growing reliance on self-funded students. This may not attract the calibre of PhD researchers the UK attracted in the past, many of whom were funded students.
Efficient diversification of international students should be considered, alongside considerations about students’ wellbeing, their experience and graduate outcomes, sustainable growth in student numbers, and the health of the international student recruitment portfolio (in terms of which pipelines perform well, and which don’t).